From the Website of CNN NEWS
links: http://edition.cnn.com/2016/04/26/opinions/philippines-election-analysis/
Philippines election: Why fatigued voters yearn for 'strongman' leader
(CNN)The upcoming presidential election in the Philippines is arguably the country's most consequential in recent memory.
In
coming weeks, the world will discover whether the Southeast Asian
country's recent impressive political and economic gains mark the
beginning of a new chapter or, alternatively, represent a fortunate yet
short-lived deviation.
Canadian hostage John Ridsdel killed in the Philippines Under the stewardship of President Benigno Aquino, the Philippines has posted one of the fastest growth rates in the world,
initiated various good governance initiatives, and injected vigor into
the country's foreign policy, particularly with the South China Sea
disputes.
No longer seen as the "sick man of Asia," the country is now the toast of the town among international investors.
Showdown in the South China Sea: How did we get here?
Autocratic nostalgia
Latest polls suggest Rodrigo Duterte, Davao City's firebrand mayor, who has made international headlines for his controversial statements in recent weeks, is comfortably leading the presidential race.
Meanwhile,
Ferdinand "BongBong" Marcos Jr., the only son of the infamous former
dictator, is in an equally strong position to win the second-highest
elected post in the government. If successful, Marcos is widely expected
to run for presidency in 2022.
Both
Duterte and Marcos have actively tapped into growing social discontent
over the lack of inclusive growth, chronic corruption, lack of law and
order, massive infrastructural bottlenecks, and the perceived absence of
decisive leadership in the country.
A multi-million dollar jewelry collection that once belonged to Imelda Marcos is up for auction. 01:19
Contrary
to the incumbent, they have also promised more engagement with China,
with Duterte even suggesting that sovereignty disputes in the South
China Sea are negotiable. Similarly, they have expressed doubt in
existing democratic institutions.
Frustrated
with the shortcomings of democratically-elected governments in the
past, a growing number of Filipinos are giving into democratic fatigue
and embracing autocratic nostalgia.
What
is at stake isn't only recent gains under the Aquino administration but
the whole elite democracy -- a political system dominated by few major
political families -- that supplanted the Marcos dictatorship.
Duterte: From 'Punisher' to Philippines' President?
The strongman syndrome
Almost half a century ago, Harvard University professor Samuel Huntington observed a counterintuitive connection between accelerated economic growth and political polarization.
Throughout
the past few years, we have seen examples of this in numerous nations,
with a series of tough-talking, single-minded politicians making inroads
across rapidly growing but dysfunctional democracies such as Indonesia, India, Peru, and the Philippines.
Even
established democracies such as the U.S. are falling for the strongman
syndrome -- the misguided belief that a single strong leader can save
the whole nation -- as most pronounced in the rise of Donald Trump.
However, the Philippines is more of an oligarchy disguised as democracy, with elections largely a clash of political families.
Up
to 70% of Filipino legislators hail from political dynasties, and the
economic picture reveals a similar tendency. In 2011, for instance, the
40 richest families swallowed up to 76% of newly-created growth in
recent years -- the highest rate of growth-concentration in the
Asia-Pacific region.
No wonder then
that in the Philippines, as in other troubled democracies, there is a
growing yearn for change -- for better or worse.
If elected as president, Duterte, who is accused of supporting extra-judicial killings to bring stability to the once-crime-ravaged city of Davao, has astonishingly promised to end crime and corruption nationally within his first three to six months in office.
In
light of the breakdown in the peace process in the troubled southern
island of Mindanao, with ISIS-sympathizers such as Abu Sayyaf stepping
up their terror operations and recently beheading a Canadian hostage,
Duterte is in a particularly strong position to portray himself as a
shield against further instability in the country. In fact, he has
presented himself as the only candidate who truly understands the
complexity of the decades-long conflict in the south, vowing to bring
together different rebel groups to negotiate an end to the conflict in
Mindanao, if elected president.
Marcos
has similarly promised a decisive style of leadership. He has
consistently glorified his father's legacy, even daring to claim that
the Southeast Asian country would have turned into a developed country
if not for the 1986 EDSA Revolution.
In
a country where forgetfulness and forgiveness are interchangeable and
there is collective mental bias for the immediate present than the
distant past, Marcos' blitzkrieg campaign of "historical revisionism"
has proven increasingly effective, especially among the youth and those
who are critical of the Philippines' oligarchy.
A race to the end
The
race for president has been tight for the past six months, with
essentially four candidates slugging it out. But in the past few weeks,
Duterte and Grace Poe have pulled away from the rest of the pack, according to the polls.
Poe,
the daughter of a former movie action star and presidential candidate,
is largely seen as the other candidate of change, who combines popular
appeal with a reformist agenda.
A
former American citizen, she barely survived a constitutional challenge
on the grounds of citizenship to her presidential bid, and could still
face disqualification if she wins in the upcoming elections.
In
recent weeks, however, her perceived affiliation with oligarchs such as
Danding Cuajuangco and the endorsement of former president and
convicted plunderer, Joseph Estrada, have partly undermined her
authenticity and reformist appeal.
At
this point, in a single-round, first-past-the-post race, Duterte seems
to be the candidate most likely to win, leaving Poe as the only other
candidate with a realistic chance of defeating the frontrunner.
In the vice-presidential race, Marcos Jr. is leading by a smaller margin, though another survey suggests that he is now tied for first with the Aquino administration's candidate, Leni Robredo, who has leveraged decades of public service and reformist credentials.
Philippines presidential candidate refuses to apologize over rape joke. 01:52
With vast financial resources and an impeccable machinery, Marcos is very much still the candidate to beat.
Of course, it is far from certain whether Duterte and Marcos can win the elections. Duterte's recent "rape joke" scandal
could dent his momentum, putting Poe in a strong position to regain her
own momentum. But establishment candidates, particularly Vice-President
Jejomar Binay and Secretary Roxas, have been struggling in the surveys.
What
is clear is that a rising tide of "grievance politics" is taking over
the Philippine political landscape, empowering outside-the-box
candidates like Duterte and Marcos.
This could very well mark the beginning of the end for the Philippines' elite democracy system.
CNN Website
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